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USD/Asia Pairs Mixed, Awaiting Central Bank Decisions

ASIA FX

USD/Asia pairs have been mixed, PHP and IDR are relatively steady ahead of central bank decisions later today. CNH remains resilient, while KRW has weakened past 1300.

  • CNH: USD/CNH has been range bound today. Dips sub 6.7100 have been supported, but we haven't pushed above 6.7200. The CNY fixing was close to neutral, while China/HK equities continue to outperform. Fresh stimulus hopes, as President Xi has pushed for China to meet its 2022 economic goals, is helping sentiment.
  • KRW: USD/KRW spot pushed above 1300 fresh highs going back to 2009. The Finance Ministry stated that will stabilize FX markets if needed, but this didn't impact won sentiment a great deal. The Kospi is weaker, while offshore investors have sold a further $180mn of local equities. The 1 month NDF is back above 1300, but below overnight highs of 1304.5.
  • INR: Spot USD/INR is lower in early trade, back to a 78.25 handle, after closing yesterday near 78.40. A further dip in oil prices is helping, while onshore equities are +1% higher at this stage. The 1 month NDF is around 78.45, after trading above 78.55 yesterday.
  • IDR: USD/IDR is down slightly in spot terms to just below 14838, while the 1 month NDF is slightly higher at 14853. The market awaits the BI decision, although no change is expected at this stage.
  • PHP: An early USD/PHP dip has largely reversed, with the pair back up to 54.48 from sub 54.40. We retain our call for a 25bps hike at today's BSP meeting. The peso has not received much benefit from lower oil prices, perhaps that will come post BSP.
  • THB: USD/THB is down slightly from recent highs, we touched 35.325, but sit back at 35.43 now. A former finance minister stated the BoT outlook needs to turn more hawkish to aid the baht. Fitch affirmed Thailand's sovereign credit rating at BBB+ with a stable outlook, citing the nation's "sustained external finance strengths and strong macroeconomic policy framework."
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USD/Asia pairs have been mixed, PHP and IDR are relatively steady ahead of central bank decisions later today. CNH remains resilient, while KRW has weakened past 1300.

  • CNH: USD/CNH has been range bound today. Dips sub 6.7100 have been supported, but we haven't pushed above 6.7200. The CNY fixing was close to neutral, while China/HK equities continue to outperform. Fresh stimulus hopes, as President Xi has pushed for China to meet its 2022 economic goals, is helping sentiment.
  • KRW: USD/KRW spot pushed above 1300 fresh highs going back to 2009. The Finance Ministry stated that will stabilize FX markets if needed, but this didn't impact won sentiment a great deal. The Kospi is weaker, while offshore investors have sold a further $180mn of local equities. The 1 month NDF is back above 1300, but below overnight highs of 1304.5.
  • INR: Spot USD/INR is lower in early trade, back to a 78.25 handle, after closing yesterday near 78.40. A further dip in oil prices is helping, while onshore equities are +1% higher at this stage. The 1 month NDF is around 78.45, after trading above 78.55 yesterday.
  • IDR: USD/IDR is down slightly in spot terms to just below 14838, while the 1 month NDF is slightly higher at 14853. The market awaits the BI decision, although no change is expected at this stage.
  • PHP: An early USD/PHP dip has largely reversed, with the pair back up to 54.48 from sub 54.40. We retain our call for a 25bps hike at today's BSP meeting. The peso has not received much benefit from lower oil prices, perhaps that will come post BSP.
  • THB: USD/THB is down slightly from recent highs, we touched 35.325, but sit back at 35.43 now. A former finance minister stated the BoT outlook needs to turn more hawkish to aid the baht. Fitch affirmed Thailand's sovereign credit rating at BBB+ with a stable outlook, citing the nation's "sustained external finance strengths and strong macroeconomic policy framework."