Liberals Retain Lead As Election Campaign Gets Underway

With the election campaign in Canada now officially underway ahead of the 20 September vote, opinion polls are being published at an increased frequency. The latest from Mainstreet, Leger, and Ipsos show Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's centre-left Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) retaining a lead over the main opposition centre-right Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), with the leftist New Democratic Party (NDP) in third place.

• Mainstreet Research: LPC: 33% (-), CPC: 30% (-), NDP: 20% (+1), BQ: 6% (-), PPC: 5% (-1), GPC: 4% (-). August 16, 2021 / n=1372 / MOE 2.7% / IVR.(% Change With 15 August)
• Leger: LPC: 35% (-), CPC: 30% (-), NDP: 20% (+1), BQ: 7% (-), GPC: 5% (-), PPC: 2% (-1). August 15, 2021 / n=1678 / Online. (% Change with 12 August)
• Ipsos: LPC: 36% (-), CPC: 31% (-1), NDP: 20% (-), BQ: 6% (-1), GPC: 5% (+2), PPC: 1% (-1). August 16, 2021 / n=2000 / Online. (% Change with 20 July)
• Leger: Best Prime Minister: Trudeau (Liberal): 27%, Singh (NDP): 18%, O'Toole (Conservative): 15%, Bernier (PPC): 3%, Paul (Green): 1%, Unsure / None of the Above: 31%. August 15, 2021 / n=2007 / Online
• Trudeau also wins a plurality in the 'best prime minister' polling, and the third place for Conservative leader Erin O'Toole will come as a concern for the Tories, who consistently outperform their leader in polls. Nevertheless, the large proportion (31%) stating they are 'unsure' or choosing 'none of the above' leaves a significant proportion of undecided voters up for grabs.
• With O'Toole outlining his party's plans for gov't if they win in some detail as part of a virtual address yesterday, the pressure will now be on Trudeau's shoulders to flesh out his party's view for Canada if the Liberals do (as some polls indicate) win a majority.