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Little Change In Latest Ifop Poll, RN Lead But Short Of Majority

FRANCE
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The latest in Ifop's rolling daily opinion poll shows little change on yesterday's numbers. The right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (RN) lead with 36% support, the same as 26 June. The leftist New Popular Front (NFP) alliance is in second place on 29% (up 0.5% on the day), while the centrist Ensemble alliance of President Emmanuel Macron remains in third place on 21% for the third day in a row.

  • Ifop translates these support levels into a seat projection range of 220-260 for RN and its allies, short of the 289 required for an overall majority. NFP could win 180-210, with Ensemble on 75-110. The centre-right Les Republicains and other misc. centre-right parties could win between 25 and 50 seats.
  • Note that pre-first round seat projections should be taken with some caution, given the uncertainty of the which parties will make the second round in each constituency, and then projecting which way voters from parties that did not make the second round will break.
See MNI's French Election Preview for more details on this crucial vote:

MNIPOLITICALRISK-FranceElectionPreview.pdf

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The latest in Ifop's rolling daily opinion poll shows little change on yesterday's numbers. The right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (RN) lead with 36% support, the same as 26 June. The leftist New Popular Front (NFP) alliance is in second place on 29% (up 0.5% on the day), while the centrist Ensemble alliance of President Emmanuel Macron remains in third place on 21% for the third day in a row.

  • Ifop translates these support levels into a seat projection range of 220-260 for RN and its allies, short of the 289 required for an overall majority. NFP could win 180-210, with Ensemble on 75-110. The centre-right Les Republicains and other misc. centre-right parties could win between 25 and 50 seats.
  • Note that pre-first round seat projections should be taken with some caution, given the uncertainty of the which parties will make the second round in each constituency, and then projecting which way voters from parties that did not make the second round will break.
See MNI's French Election Preview for more details on this crucial vote:

MNIPOLITICALRISK-FranceElectionPreview.pdf