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Lula Maintains Strong Polling Lead Over Bolsonaro


A new Ipespe poll has shown that challenger, and former president, Luiz Inácio 'Lula' da Silva has maintained his strong lead over incumbent Jair Bolsonaro ahead of the October 2 presidential election.

  • Ipespe shows Lula ahead 60% to 40% in a second round run-off scenario.
  • Betting market Smartkets shows Lula with a 63.29% chance of being the next Brazilian president. His strongest odds since May 12.
  • Yesterday, Datafolha released their first new presidential poll since former Justice Minister Sergio Moro dropped out of the race. It shows Lula with a Lula with an even wider 25% lead over Bolsonaro in the second round run-off.
  • Andre Cesar of Hold Assessoria: 'These numbers are great news for Lula's campaign. Bolsonaro will have to pull a rabbit out of the hat now.'
Figure 1: Brazil presidential election second round run-off (Ipespe)

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