Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Retreats

European TTF prices are easing back today amid bearish short-term fundamentals with low demand due to mild weather and high wind power generation enabling small gas storage injections. Natural gas pipeline flows from Israel to Egypt appeared to have restarted on Tuesday.

• TTF DEC 23 down -2.8% at 46.4€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -2.8% at 48.52€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -2.5% at 47€/MWh
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes were yesterday near normal at 235k.
• Israel has resumed gas flows to Egypt from its 12.4 bcm/y Leviathan gas field, according to Argus citing market sources. The return comes after recent technical issues at the 6.5 bcm/y Karish gas field meant that Leviathan flows to Egypt were redirected to prioritise domestic supply.
• The latest weather forecast is relatively unchanged with above normal temperatures for NW and central Europe this week before drifting back towards normal or just below in the second week of the outlook.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today up to 329.6mcm/d after gradually recovering from just below 304mcm/d on 28 Oct.
• European natural gas storage levels are still building slightly and up to 99.32% full on 1 Nov according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 90.1%.
• German natural gas consumption in calendar week 42 – 16-22 October – stood 15.2% below the 2018-2021 average, while household demand surpassed 2022 levels by almost 55% due to colder weather, Bnetza data showed.
• The EU plans to cut imports of Russian gas to 40-45 bcm in 2023 as it seeks to reduce its energy independence on Russia, according to the European Commission and reported by Interfax.
• Total European LNG sendout is edging higher up to 386mcm/d on 31 Oct compared to an average for October of about 326mcm/d and 367mcm/d seen in Oct 2022 according to Bloomberg.
• LNG traders are looking to procure Asian shipments to avoid the Panama Canal, as drought conditions led to cuts in slots for ship transits according to Bloomberg.
• Russian LNG exports will maintain last year’s pace in 2023 according to Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov.
• Russia’s Gazprom delivered its second shipment of LNG to China Nov. 2, according to Reuters, sending the cargo via the Suez Canal.
• Chevron is negotiating possible LNG supply contracts for Europe for the duration of 15 years as European buyers are expecting the region to rely for longer than previously thought on gas, Colin Parfitt, head of Chevron's trading, shipping and pipeline operations, said, cited by Reuters.