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Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Softens

NATGAS

European TTF has softened from yesterday with Dec23 falling from over 56€/MWh at the start of the week. The ongoing conflict in Israel has showed no signs yet of expanding into the wider Middle East region, which could further pose supply risks. Bearish short-term fundamentals with near-full storage, low demand due to mild weather and forecasts for high wind power output in NW Europe are adding further downside.

  • TTF DEC 23 down -0.5% at 47.75€/MWh
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today down slightly to 317.7mcm/d.
  • End of season injections into European natural gas storage continue to bring levels up to 99.2% full on Oct 30 according to GIE data compared to the five-year average of 90.1%.
  • Net injections have been falling in the last few days, although remain well above the average rates from the previous five years. Net injections averaged about 1,010GWh/d in the week to Oct 30 compared to the five-year average for the period of just 290GWh/d.
  • European natural gas markets are struggling to balance between short-term oversupply and possible supply risks, MET Group chief executive, Gyorgy Vargha, told Argus.
  • US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in December, January 2024 and February 2024. The gas price spread between Asia and Europe is $2.48/MMBtu in December according to BNEF.
  • Chinese natural gas consumption is expected to rise by 6% on the year during the fourth quarter of this year to reach 107bcm, with LNG imports forecast to rise by 8% year on year to 19mn tons according to BNEF.
  • China’s domestic LNG prices are expected to keep momentum in November, amid rising feedgas costs, higher expectations for imported LNG prices, and rising downstream demand, according to OilChem.
  • LNG stockpiles held by major Japanese power utilities decreased by 1.36% to 2.18 million tons on Oct. 29 according to trade ministry data after four consecutive weeks of growth amid exceptionally weak power demand.
  • LNG futures traded on exchanges in October hit a year to date high for 2023 at 75,104 lots, according to Platts, citing exchange and broker data.
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