MNI BRIEF: UK Public Finances Show Strain Ahead Of Budget
The UK's debt-to-GDP ratio improves in September, but only slightly.
MNI (LONDON) - UK debt-to-GDP stood at 98.5% in September, slightly improved on the revised 98.8% figure seen at the end of August, the Office for National Statistics reported Tuesday.
Debt-to-GDP (including the Bank of England) was revised lower following the end-Q2 revisions to GDP rather than and material change in the overall debt levels, and stands 4.0 percentage points higher than at the end of September 2023, remaining at levels last seen in the early 1960s.
The figure ex-BOE was 91.2% though end-September following the growth revisions, 5.0 percentage points more than at the end of September 2023 but 7.3 percentage points lower than the wider debt measure, nderlining why the government could be tempted to change its fiscal rules -- currently targeted on the BOE-inclusive number -- at the October 30 Budget. (see MNI INTERVIEW: UK To Ease Debt Target, Avoid Net Worth Target)
“Borrowing this month was about £2 billion up on last year, making this the third highest September figure on record. While tax revenue increased, this was outweighed by increased spending, partly due to higher debt interest and public sector pay rises,” ONS Deputy Director for Public Sector Finances Jessica Barnaby said.