MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bullish USD/CAD Theme Strengthens

Price Signal Summary – Bullish USD/CAD Theme Strengthens

• S&P e-minis maintain a softer tone and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. The contract traded to a fresh cycle low last Friday. The recent breach of support at 4235.50, Oct 4 low and bear trigger, confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence. A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and the contract remains closer to its recent lows. The recent breach of support at 4082.00, the Oct 4 low and bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend.
• USDJPY traded sharply higher Tuesday and bullish conditions remain intact. The pair has cleared last week’s 150.78 high (Oct 26). This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and paves the way for a climb towards 152.20 next, a Fibonacci projection. GBPUSD is consolidating and continues to trade below the Oct 24 high. The trend outlook is bearish and attention is on 1.2037, Oct 4 low and bear trigger. A break of this level would resume the downtrend that started in July and open 1.1964. The USDCAD trend needle continues to point north and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. The focus is on 1.3977, the Oct 13 2022 high. Last week’s break of 1.3862, the Mar 10 high, strengthens the bullish condition. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too
• Gold conditions are unchanged - the uptrend remains intact and a short-term pullback is considered corrective. Price has recently breached key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high, and $1987.5, the Jul 20 high. The continuation higher strengthens a bullish theme. WTI futures traded lower again Tuesday as the pullback from $89.85, the Oct 20 high, extends. The medium-term trend condition is bullish and the recent move lower still appears to be a correction.
• Bund futures continue to trade closer to their recent highs. A bear cycle remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. Firm support to watch is 127.18, the Oct 23 low. A break would be a bearish development and expose the bear trigger at 126.62. Gilt futures traded higher Tuesday. A broader bearish theme remains intact and recent gains appear to be a correction. For bears, price has recently traded through key support at 91.47, the Aug 17 low.

EURUSD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.0862 50.0% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.0809 High Sep 4
• RES 2: 1.0764 38.2% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.0694/0737 High Oct 24 / High Sep 20
• PRICE: 1.0568 @ 05:39 GMT Nov 1
• SUP 1: 1.0524/0496 Low Oct 26 / 13
• SUP 2: 1.0448 Low Oct 03 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0406 50.0% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0374 2.0% 10-dma envelope

A strong reversal from the day’s high in EURUSD Tuesday, confirmed short-term gains were corrective. The pair remains below key resistance at 1.0694, the Oct 24 high. The move lower last week also reinforces a bearish theme - the Oct 24 price pattern is a bearish engulfing candle, a strong reversal signal. A sell-off would open 1.0496, Oct 13 low. The key support and bear trigger lies at 1.0448, Oct 3 low. 1.0694 is key resistance.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.2548 High Sep 11
• RES 3: 1.2506 High Sep 14
• RES 2: 1.2438 200-dma
• RES 1: 1.2289/2337 High Oct 24 / 11 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2133 @ 05:48 GMT Nov 1
• SUP 1: 1.2037/28 Low Oct 04 and bear trigger / Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: 1.2011 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.1964 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1908 Low Mar 10

GBPUSD is consolidating and continues to trade below the Oct 24 high. The trend outlook is bearish and attention is on 1.2037, Oct 4 low and bear trigger. A break of this level would resume the downtrend that started in July and open 1.1964, a 3.00 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing. For bulls, clearance of 1.2337, the Oct 11 high, is required to signal scope for a stronger corrective cycle and highlight a short-term base.

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 2: 0.8793 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8754 High Oct 31
• PRICE: 0.8708 @ 06:03 GMT Nov 1
• SUP 1: 0.8687 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8655/16 50-day EMA / Low Oct 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8569 Low Sep 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8558 Low Sep 11

A bullish theme in EURGBP remains intact despite the pullback from Tuesday’s high - a correction. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 0.8687, remains intact. The cross recently breached resistance at 0.8741, the Oct 20 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Aug 23. This signals scope for an extension towards 0.8793, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of the 20-day EMA would signal the start of a correction.

USDJPY TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 153.52 2.236 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 3: 152.20 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 151.95 High Oct 21 and a major resistance
• RES 1: 151.72 High Oct 31
• PRICE: 151.28 @ 06:18 GMT Nov 1
• SUP 1: 149.66 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 148.81/148.17 Low Oct 30 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 147.43 Low Oct 3 and key support
• SUP 4: 146.44 Low Sep 12

USDJPY traded sharply higher Tuesday and bullish conditions remain intact. The pair has cleared last week’s 150.78 high (Oct 26). This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and paves the way for a climb towards 152.20 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this reflects the market's positive sentiment. On the downside, firm support lies at the 50-day EMA, at 148.17, is firm support.

EURJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: 162.80 1.00 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 3: 162.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 161.52 2.618 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 160.85 High Oct 31
• PRICE: 159..92 @ 06:29 GMT Nov 1
• SUP 1: 158.93/157.82 High Oct 30 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 156.98 Low Oct 16
• SUP 3: 155.83 Low Oct 4
• SUP 4: 154.46 Oct 3 and the bear trigger

The trend outlook in EURJPY remains bullish and the recovery from Monday’s low confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Tuesday’s gains resulted in a break of resistance and the bull trigger, at 159.92, the Oct 24 high. This signals scope for 161.52, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support lies at 157.82, the 50-day EMA. A breach of this average is required to highlight a top.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 3: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1, and the key resistance
• RES 2: 0.6445/6501 High Oct 11 / High Sep 29
• RES 1: 0.6404 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6340 @ 06:45 GMT Nov 1
• SUP 1: 0.6272/70 Low Nov 3 2022 / Oct 26 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6170 Low Oct 13 2022 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6135 2.50 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

Short-term gains in AUDUSD are considered corrective and the trend outlook is bearish. Last week’s low print reinforces current conditions and the pair has recently pierced 0.6286, Oct 3 / 13 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.6215, a Fibonacci projection. Key trend resistance is 0.6522, Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. A break is required to highlight a reversal. Initial resistance is 0.6404, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 1.4070 1.236 proj of the Sep 19 - Oct 5 - Oct 10 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4054 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 2022 and a major resistance
• RES 1: 1.3892 High Oct 31
• PRICE: 1.3876 @ 06:49 GMT Nov 1
• SUP 1: 1.3790 Low Oct 26
• SUP 2: 1.3711/3615 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 1.3477 76.4% retracement of the Sep 19 - Oct 5 rally
• SUP 4: 1.3417 Low Sep 29

The USDCAD trend needle continues to point north and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. The focus is on 1.3977, the Oct 13 2022 high. Last week’s break of 1.3862, the Mar 10 high, strengthens the bullish condition. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting an uptrend and reflecting positive market sentiment. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is 1.3727, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 131.33 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg
• RES 3: 130.43 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 downleg
• RES 2: 130.20 High Oct 12 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 129.39/47 50-day EMA / High Oct 31
• PRICE: 128.55 @ 05:14 GMT Nov a
• SUP 1: 127.18 Low Oct 23
• SUP 2: 126.62 Low Oct 4 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 125.49 0.764 proj of the Sep 1 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing

Bund futures continue to trade closer to their recent highs. A bear cycle remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. Firm support to watch is 127.18, the Oct 23 low. A break would be a bearish development and expose the bear trigger at 126.62. On the upside, resistance is at 129.39, the 50-day EMA. It has been tested, a breach of it would instead signal scope for a stronger recovery.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Key Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 116.966 76.4% retracement of the Sep 1 - Sep 28 downleg
• RES 3: 116.740 High Sep 14
• RES 2: 116.567 61.8% retracement of the Sep 1 - Sep 28 downleg
• RES 1: 116.500 High Oct 10 and the short-term bull trigger
• PRICE: 116.120 @ 05:17 GMT Nov 1
• SUP 1: 115.892 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 115.480/130 Low Oct 26 / 19
• SUP 3: 114.880 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 114.710 Low Aug 15 (cont)

The broader Bobl futures trend outlook remains bearish and short-term gains still appear to be a correction - for now. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at 114.880, the Sep 28 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Key short-term resistance and a bull trigger to watch is unchanged at 116.500, the Oct 10 high. A break would alter the picture and signal a short-term reversal.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 105.440 High Sep 4
• RES 3: 105.372 76.4% Fibonacci retracement Sep 1 - 21 downleg
• RES 2: 105.320 High Oct 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 105.245 High Oct 30
• PRICE: 105.130 @ 05:16 GMT Nov 1
• SUP 1: 105.050 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 104.940/765 Low Oct 26 / Low Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

Schatz futures are trading closer to their recent gains. The broader trend outlook is bearish and recent gains are considered corrective. Key resistance is at 105.320, the Oct 10 high and marks the short-term bull trigger. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on key support at 104.765, the Sep 21 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Clearance of 105.320 would alter the picture.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 96.05 High Sep 25
• RES 3: 95.66 High Oct 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 94.28/94.52 High Oct 16 / 76.4% of the Oct 12 - 23 bear leg
• RES 1: 93.82 61.8% retracement of the Oct 12 - 23 bear leg
• PRICE: 93.16 @ Close Oct 31
• SUP 1: 91.62/90.85 Low Oct 26 / 23
• SUP 2: 90.38 Low Oct 12 2022 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 3: 90.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 89.22 1.236 proj of the Sep 20 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing

Gilt futures traded higher Tuesday. A broader bearish theme remains intact and recent gains appear to be a correction. For bears, price has recently traded through key support at 91.47, the Aug 17 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for 90.38, the Oct 12 2022 low (cont) and a major support. Initial resistance is at 93.82, 61.8% of the Oct 12 - 23 bear leg. The 76.4% level is at 94.52.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 113.69 76.4% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 3: 112.53 61.8% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 2: 111.59 50.0% retracement of the Aug 24 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 111.17 High Oct 12 and key resistance
• PRICE: 110.22 @ Close Oct 31
• SUP 1: 108.01/107.42 Low Oct 26 / 19
• SUP 2: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 106.40 2.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.85 2.50 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

BTP futures traded higher Tuesday and a short-term corrective cycle remains in play - for now. The trend outlook is bearish. Recent weakness resulted in a print below key support at 107.62, the Oct 4 low. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the long-term downtrend and open 107.08, a Fibonacci projection. 111.17, the Oct 12 high, marks the key resistance. A break is required to highlight a possible short-term reversal.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Trend Structure Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 4359.00 High Sep 15 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4187.70/4256.00 50-day EMA / High Oct 12
• RES 1: 4112.30 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4083.00 @ 05:40 GMT Nov 1
• SUP 1: 4001.00 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 3979.00 1.00 proj of the Sep 15 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 3914.00 Low Mar 20 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3873.20 1.382 proj of the Sep 15 - Oct 4 - Oct 12 price swing

A bearish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains in play and the contract remains closer to its recent lows. The recent breach of support at 4082.00, the Oct 4 low and bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and this maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too. Sights are on the 4000.00 handle. Initial firm resistance is at 4112.30, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4455.75 Trendline resistance drawn from the Jul 27 high
• RES 3: 4430.50 High Oct 12
• RES 2: 4359.41 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4278.42 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4205.50 @ 06:27 GMT Nov 1
• SUP 1: 4122.25 LowOct 27
• SUP 2: 4100.00 Round number support 4124.19
• SUP 3: 4090.35 1.764 proj of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 4049.00 Low Mar 28

S&P e-minis maintain a softer tone and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. The contract traded to a fresh cycle low last Friday. The recent breach of support at 4235.50, Oct 4 low and bear trigger, confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. MA studies are in a bear-mode position too. The focus is on 4100.00. Initial firm resistance is at 4278.42, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F4) Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: $100.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $98.99 - 1.00 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 2: $93.20 - High Oct 24 / Sep 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $89.49/92.32 - High Oct 20
• PRICE: $85.55 @ 07:04 GMT Nov 1
• SUP 1: $84.09/82.20- Low Oct 11 / 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $81.62 - 50.0% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $81.02 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $78.89 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

Brent futures traded lower Tuesday. The broader trend condition remains bullish and recent short-term weakness still appears to be a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a rising trend. Key support lies at $82.20, the Oct 6 low. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at $95.35, the Sep 28 high. For bears, a break of $82.20, would highlight a short-term top and stronger reversal.

WTI TECHS: (Z3) Key Support Remains Intact - For Now

• RES 4: $98.27 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: $96.03 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: $92.48 - High Sep 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $85.90/89.85 - High Oct 27 / 20
• PRICE: $81.53 @ 07:15 GMT Nov 1
• SUP 1: $80.20 - Low Oct 6 and key support
• SUP 2: $77.74 - 50.0% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $75.47 - Low Jul 24
• SUP 4: $74.26 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run

WTI futures traded lower again Tuesday as the pullback from $89.85, the Oct 20 high, extends. The medium-term trend condition is bullish and the recent move lower still appears to be a correction. A resumption of gains would expose the bull trigger at $92.48, the Sep 28 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the medium -term uptrend. For bears, a move through $80.20, the Oct 6 low, would instead highlight a short-term top.

GOLD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $2063.0 - High May 4 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2048.2 - High May 10
• RES 2: $2022.2 - High May 15
• RES 1: $2009.4 - High Oct 27
• PRICE: $1978.0 @ 07:18 GMT Nov 1
• SUP 1: $1947.0 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1945.3/1926.7 - Low Oct 19 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1868.8 - Low Oct 13
• SUP 4: $1844.3 - Low Oct 9

Gold conditions are unchanged - the uptrend remains intact and a short-term pullback is considered corrective. Price has recently breached key resistance at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high, and $1987.5, the Jul 20 high. The continuation higher strengthens a bullish theme and opens $2022.20 next, the May 15 high. Initial firm pivot support lies at $1926.7, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level is required to signal a short-term top and a potential reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $25.267 - High Jul 20
• RES 3: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $24.298 - High Sep 4
• RES 1: $23.774 - High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $22.566@ 07:53 GMT Nov 1
• SUP 1: $22.371 - Low Oct 17
• SUP 2: $21.573/20.689 - Low Oct 9 / 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

A bull cycle in Silver remains in play and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. Price has recently traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break higher strengthens bullish conditions and has opened $23.774, the Sep 22 high. For bears, a reversal lower and a break of $20.689, Oct 3 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Initial support to watch is $22.371, the Oct 17 low.