MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Rise 12,000 To 272,000>

--NSA Claims Rise In Florida, Georgia, Virgin Islands

--Puerto Rico Claims Down NSA; But Had To Be Estimated

--2Q GDP Revised Up To +3.1% Vs Prev +3.0%;Price Measures Unrevised

By Kevin Kastner, Sara Haire and Holly Stokes

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

rose by 12,000 to 272,000 in the September 23 week, above the 265,000 

level expected, data released by the Labor Department Thursday showed. 

     Unadjusted filings in Texas fell by 8,218, but the level remained 

above a year ago. Filings rose by 8,160 in Florida, by 3,157 in Georgia, 

and more than doubled in the Virgin Islands, rising 128 to 210. Filings 

fell by 168 in Puerto Rico, but were still elevated at 2,248. Puerto 

Rico was the only state estimated, not surprising given the widespread 

devastation. 

     The four-week moving average for initial claims, a better measure 

of the underlying trend of the data, rose by 9,000 to 277,750 in the 

September 23 week, the highest level since the February 6, 2016 week. 

However, the four-week average could decline next week, as the recent 

298,000 peak in the September 2 week will roll out of the calculation. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected a decrease of 3.5%, or 

7,541, in unadjusted claims. Instead, unadjusted claims rose by 2,062 to 

215,024. The current week's level is ahead of the 198,455 level in the 

comparable week a year ago. 

     The level of continuing claims fell by 45,000 to 1.934 million in 

the September 16 employment survey week, down 20,000 from the 1.954 

million level in the August 12 employment survey week despite the impact 

of the hurricanes. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate held steady at 

1.4% in the September 16 week for the 24th straight week. The current 

week's rate is down from 1.5% in the same week a year earlier. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     In other data released, second quarter GDP growth was revised up 

slightly to a 3.1% annual rate from the 3.0% pace in the second 

estimate. The small upward adjustment was due to in large part to 

stronger inventory growth than previously reported. This was offset by 

downward adjustments to both residential and nonresidential fixed 

investment. PCE, government spending, and net exports were only modest 

factors. 

     As a result of the mix of revisions, real final sales were revised 

down to a 2.9% gain from the 3.0% increase in the second estimate. 

     The second estimate of second quarter Gross Domestic Income was a 

2.9% gain, unrevised from the first estimate. This keeps the GDP/GDI 

average at a 3.0% gain for the second quarter, up from the 2.0% gain in 

the second quarter. 

     The key price measures were generally unrevised in the final 

estimate, with the chain price index still up 1.0%. 

     The closely watched core PCE price index was unrevised from the 

0.9% rate posted in the second estimate. As a result, the year/year rate 

for the measure held steady at 1.5%, still below the 1.8% rate seen in 

the first quarter. 

     Overall, the data still point to an acceleration of growth from the 

first quarter, with little price pressures. Analysts expect growth to 

slip a bit in the third quarter to about 2.5%, with the impact of the 

August and September hurricanes a downside risk. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]