MNI DATA IMPACT: US Initial Claims Fall 6,000 To 216,000>

--Four-Week Moving Average +1,000 To 218,750, Could Fall Next Week

By Kevin Kastner and Harrison Clarke

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The level of initial claims fell by 6,000 to 

216,000 in the June 15 employment survey week, compared with 

expectations by Bloomberg and MNI for a smaller decline to 220,000.

     Also released on Thursday, the current account gap narrowed to 

$130.4 billion in the first quarter from $143.9 billion in the previous 

quarter. MNI and Bloomberg both expected the gap to narrow to around 

$124 billion in the quarter. Annual revisions for 2018 were included 

with the data.

     Here are some of the key takeaways from the data released Thursday: 

     - The dip in the seasonally adjusted initial claims data reflect a 

15,210 decrease in unadjusted claims, when seasonal factors had expected 

a 9,554 decrease in the current week. The unadjusted state data for the 

current week showed large declines in California, Illinois, and New 

York. The largest gain was a 2,177 increase in Pennsylvania. 

     - Initial claims were at a level of 212,000 in the May 18 

employment survey week, so the month/month gain was a modest 4,000, 

compared with a larger 19,000 gain between April and May. While not a 

direct feed into nonfarm payrolls, the claims data suggest less 

deterioration in the monthly report for June. 

     - The four-week moving average for claims rose by 1,000 to 218,750 

in the June 15 week, but would be expected to fall next week as a 

218,000 level in the May 25 week rolls out. 

     - Continuing claims fell by 37,000 to 1.662 million in the June 8 

week, lowering the four-week average by 5,250 to 1.679 million. The 

seasonally adjusted rate of insured unemployment remained at 1.2%, where 

it has been every week in the last year. 

     - The narrower current account gap was due primarily to a $16.5 

billion narrowing in the goods and services gap to -$154.6b. The primary 

income surplus widened by $1.1b to $61.1b, but the secondary income gap 

widened by $4.1b to -$36.9b. 

     - The Q1 current account gap was 2.5% of GDP, compared with 2.8% in 

Q4. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,MT$$$$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]