MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

8 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Focus On Weekly Bear Channel Base

*RES 4: 159.33 High Jan 31

*RES 3: 158.92 High Feb 6

*RES 2: 158.51 Hourly resistance Feb 7

*RES 1: 158.24 Hourly support Feb 7 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.02

*SUP 1: 157.62 2018 Low Feb 5

*SUP 2: 157.52 Low Dec 29 2015

*SUP 3: 156.78 Low Dec 16 2015

*SUP 4: 156.52 Weekly bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The bullish key day reversal Monday failed to deliver with the

contract remaining heavy. O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base (157.68)

remains concerns for bears who are currently focused on 156.52-78 where the

weekly bear channel base is located. A close below 154.81 is then needed to

target 148.23 2015 lows. Bulls now need a close above 158.92 to ease bearish

pressure and above the bear channel top (159.98) to shift focus higher.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 131.050

*RES 4: 131.050 Low Jan 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: 130.879 Daily bear channel top 

*RES 2: 130.870 Hourly resistance Feb 6 

*RES 1: 130.600 Low Feb 6 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.400

*SUP 1: 130.260 2018 Low Feb 2

*SUP 2: 130.027 Daily bear channel base

*SUP 3: 129.460 High Dec 7 2015 now support

*SUP 4: 128.820 Monthly Low Dec 4 2015

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA and bear channel top confirmed significance having

capped the aggressive bounce from 2018 lows with the contract again looking

heavy and initial focus returned to 2018 lows. O/S daily studies and the

Bollinger base (130.164) remain concerns for bears. Bulls continue to look for a

close above 131.050 to ease bearish pressure and shift focus to 131.450-520.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Bears Remain Focused On 200-WMA

*RES 4: 111.950 High Jan 23 

*RES 3: 111.920 High Feb 6 

*RES 2: 111.895 High Feb 7 

*RES 1: 111.840 Low Feb 5 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.815

*SUP 1: 111.785 Hourly support Jan 29, Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: 111.765 2018 Low Jan 29 

*SUP 3: 111.750 Monthly Low May 3 2016 

*SUP 4: 111.631 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: 111.950 resistance confirmed significance with the recovery from

2018 lows capped and the contract again looking a little heavy. The close back

below 111.840 reconfirms immediate focus on 2018 lows and overall focus on tests

of 200--WMA. Layers of resistance have again started to build. Bulls continue to

look for a close above 111.950 to confirm a break of the bear channel top

(111.923) and shift initial focus to 111.985-112.035 where key DMAs are noted.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Resistance Layers Building And Weighing

*RES 4: 122.65 High Jan 30 

*RES 3: 122.28 Low Jan 29 now resistance 

*RES 2: 122.03 Hourly resistance Feb 6 

*RES 1: 121.79 Hourly resistance Feb 7

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.67

*SUP 1: 121.19 Low Feb 5 

*SUP 2: 120.92 2018 Low Feb 2 

*SUP 3: 120.54 Monthly Low May 25 2016 

*SUP 4: 118.93 Monthly Low Apr 4 2016

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows has stall with the contract again

looking a little offered as a result. Losses Wednesday sees bears reconfirm

initial focus on 2018 lows and then the 118.93-120.54 region where monthly lows

last seen in 2016 are noted. Bulls now need a close above 122.28 to ease bearish

pressure and above 122.65 to hint at a move back to 123.12-93 with above the

21-DMA (122.89) to confirm.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.450 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 99.470 200-DMA

*RES 3: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.436 21-DMA

*RES 1: 99.435 Repeated Daily Lows now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.435

*SUP 1: 99.415 2018 Low Feb 2 & 5

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.392 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*COMMENTARY: The contract remains capped ahead of the 21-DMA as it now trades

back above the 55-DMA (99.426). Bears still need a close below 99.390 to confirm

a break of the 100-DMA and target 99.300-310. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 99.450 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and to shift focus to 99.470-520

where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.305 Support Reconfirms Significance

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.319 - Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.308 - 100-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5, Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct

*COMMENTARY: The 100.305 support has again confirmed significance with the dip

below the 100-DMA and bull channel base bouncing from this level Wednesday. The

100.320-350 resistance region remains key. Bulls look for a close above 100.325

to target 100.340-342 where the bull channel top is noted. Bears continue to

look for a close below 100.305 to end bullish hopes and target 100.285-295.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 121-23/122-20 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 122-30  Hourly resistance Jan 17

*RES 3: 122-20  Low Jan 12 now resistance

*RES 2: 122-05+ Hourly resistance Feb 6a

*RES 1: 121-23  Hourly resistance Feb 6

*PRICE: 121-06 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 120-20+ Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: 120-18  2018 Low Feb 5

*SUP 3: 119-24  Low Apr 21 2011

*SUP 4: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the bullish key day reversal with the

contract rejected ahead of key 122-20 resistance and remaining heavy. The break

below 121-10+ reconfirmed initial focus to 2018 lows and then below 120-18 to

target the 117-29/119-24 support region where levels last seen in 2011 are

noted. Bulls need a close above 121-23+ to gain breathing room and above 122-20

to shift initial focus to 123-05+/20 where the 55-DMA (123-10+) is noted.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 2.741

*RES 4: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 2: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 

*RES 1: 2.885 - 2018 High Feb 6

*PRICE: 2.811 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.807 - High Feb 6 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.741 - Hourly support Feb 6 

*SUP 3: 2.691 - Hourly support Feb 6a 

*SUP 4: 2.677 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the recovery from the sell-off with the yield

bouncing from around the 21-DMA. Immediate focus has returned to the 2.885-912

with overall focus on 2014 highs. Bears now need a close below 2.741 to confirm

an easing of bullish pressure and to shift initial focus back to 2.648-691 where

the 21-DMA is located. O/B daily studies looking to correct remain the key

concern for bulls.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3469.23-3523.28 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 3570.95 High Feb 2 

*RES 3: 3552.87 200-DMA 

*RES 2: 3523.28 Low Feb 2 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3469.23 Low Jan 2 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3454.52

*SUP 1: 3440.38 High Feb 6 now support 

*SUP 2: 3362.85 2018 Low Feb 6 

*SUP 3: 3355.40 Monthly High Feb 22 2017 now support 

*SUP 4: 3335.77 Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: The index has taken its first backwards step since the sell-off

from 3636.05 but bulls continue to look for a close above 3469.23 to ease

bearish pressure. A close above 3523.28 remains needed to shift initial focus to

key DMAs clustered 3552.34-3600.36. Initial support is noted at 3440.38 with

bears needing a close below to gain breathing room and retain overall focus on

the 200-WMA (3294.34).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]