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MNI NBP Preview - October 2022: Too Soon for End of Cycle

Executive Summary:

  • Expected to raise rates by a further 25bps to 7.00%
  • There are signs that the bank could be nearing the peak of their tightening cycle
  • Sell-side split between October being end of cycle and others that see a further 50 – 100bps
Full preview including summary of sell-side views here:

MNINBPPrevOct22.pdf

Consensus looks for 25bps at this meeting, with a very small number of outside calls for unchanged or a +50bps hike at this meeting. Previous forecasts for a 7.00% peak in the policy rate have been scaled back, with the sell-side now split between those seeing October as the end of the cycle, and others that see a further 50 – 100bps beyond 7.00%.

The NBP had seen inflation moderating across the summer months, something the bank will have been wanting to use as justification for guiding toward the end of the tightening cycle. This failed to materialise, however, with CPI in August rising to 17.20% despite the government’s actions to contain energy and consumer prices. This puts the bank in a much trickier position to follow their regional peers (Hungary, Czechia) in signalling the conclusion of rate hikes.

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