Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary:
- Expected to raise rates by a further 25bps to 7.00%
- There are signs that the bank could be nearing the peak of their tightening cycle
- Sell-side split between October being end of cycle and others that see a further 50 – 100bps
Consensus looks for 25bps at this meeting, with a very small number of outside calls for unchanged or a +50bps hike at this meeting. Previous forecasts for a 7.00% peak in the policy rate have been scaled back, with the sell-side now split between those seeing October as the end of the cycle, and others that see a further 50 – 100bps beyond 7.00%.
The NBP had seen inflation moderating across the summer months, something the bank will have been wanting to use as justification for guiding toward the end of the tightening cycle. This failed to materialise, however, with CPI in August rising to 17.20% despite the government’s actions to contain energy and consumer prices. This puts the bank in a much trickier position to follow their regional peers (Hungary, Czechia) in signalling the conclusion of rate hikes.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.