Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary
Australians head to the polls on 21 May with incumbent Prime Minister Scott Morrison seeking to pull off a second successive upset victory to secure a fourth consecutive majority for his Liberal/National Coalition. The election campaign has been an ill-tempered affair, with little in the way of substantive policy discussion. Nevertheless, markets will be watching closely given the importance of Australia with regards to global commodity production and prices as well as its strategic position as a key US ally in the Indo-Pacific.
- The opposition centre-left Australian Labor Party (ALP) is on course to oust Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s centre-right government following nine years of Liberal/National Coalition rule.
- Opinion polls point to a relatively close race on primary votes. However, Australia’s electoral system means Labor stand a strong chance of picking up seats based on second preference votes from Green and independent candidate supporters.
- The largely centrist policy platform put forward by the ALP means there are unlikely to be any significant market shocks in the event Morrison is ousted. Similarly, should the Liberals pull off another unexpected electoral win we would expect to see broad policy continuity.
- Policy instability could result from the scenario of a minority Labor administration propped up by the Greens. The Greens could seek to extract significant concessions on taxation and spending, as well as climate change policy in exchange for their votes to put ALP leader Anthony Albanese in the prime minister’s office.
MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Australia Election Preview.pdf
Chart 1. Australia Federal Election Opinion Polling (Primary Vote, Long-Term), % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: Resolve Strategic, Essential, Roy Morgan, Newspoll-YouGov, Ipsos, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.