MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 18-24 July

All timings subject to change.

Monday 18 July:

• United Kingdom: Third round vote in the Conservative Party leadership contest takes place, with the race set to be whittled down from five to four candidate. Centrist MP Tom Tugendhat is seen as the candidate most likely to be eliminated in the ballot of Conservative MPs. Following a hustings in front of the 1922 Committee of backbench Conservative MPs at 1400BST, voting takes place between 1700-1900BST, before the result is announced at 2000BST (1500ET, 2100CET). In the Commons, a vote of confidence in the government takes place at around 2200BST. Little-to-no expectation of the vote going against the government, given that – in an unorthodox situation – they called the vote themselves.
• South Korea-Japan: South Korea’s Foreign Minister Park Jin met with his Japanese counterpart Yoshimasa Hayashi in Tokyo for the first time as the two sides seek to improve bilateral relations. This is the first foreign ministers’ meeting since 2019, but both sides are seen as keen to deepen links in an effort to counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific. Park set to meet PM Fumio Kishida on three-day trip.
• Italy-Algeria:Prime Minister Mario Draghi visits Algeria for talks with President Abdelmadjid Tebboune regarding the potential for a gas deal to be reached between the two nations. A large section of the Italian Cabinet will be in attendance in a signal of how important the government views ensuring supplies of energy away from Russian gas, which Italy remains highly reliant on. Joint agreements set to be signed following April trip by Draghi that saw Sonatrach and ENI reach a major deal on gas provision.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 18-24 July.pdf