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All timings subject to change.

Monday 3 October:

  • United Kingdom: Annual conference of the governing centre-right Conservative Party begins its second day in Birmingham, England. The meeting comes at a very difficult time for the government of PM Liz Truss, with Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng forced into a U-turn on his flagship policy of abolishing the top 45% rate of income tax following a brutal market and public backlash. The Conservatives now sit 17-33% behind the opposition Labour Party in opinion polling, with the conference seen as potentially a ‘make or break’ moment for the relatively new PM. Kwarteng delivers his speech to conference on Monday at 1600BST (1100ET, 1700CET).
  • Germany-France: Chancellor Olaf Scholz set to host President Emmanuel Macron in Berlin for a working dinner to discuss issues including the German government’s proposed EUR200bn gas price cap, the prospect of reforming EU rules on unanimity requirements in Council votes on issues such as sanctions, and the Midcat gas pipeline proposed to supply gas to Germany from Spain via France.
  • European Union:Coreper II meeting of member state ambassadors to the EU, with the permanent representatives set to discuss next round of sanctions the Commission has proposed for Russia. Notable focus on whether the EU implements a cap on the price of Russian seaborne oil exports in line with the G7. Hungary seen as a potential obstacle to an agreement, but wire reports state the Polish permanent representative talking up the prospect of an agreement.
Full article PDF attached below:

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Week Ahead 3-9 October.pdf

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