MNI's Political Risk team has published a preview ahead of the Philippine general election taking place on Monday 9 May. In the preview we provide a succinct briefing of how the election works and who the main candidates and parties are, charts and comment on the latest opinion polling going into the election, and scenario analysis assigning probabilities to the most likely potential outcomes of the vote and examining the potential impact of different presidencies.
- Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr. is the clear favourite to win the presidency, with his running mate – incumbent President Rodrigo Duterte’s daughter – Sara Duterte likely to win the vice-presidency.
- A Marcos win would likely see the somewhat frosty relations between Manila and Washington, D.C., remain in place, with Marcos viewed as the more ‘pro-China’ of the main candidates.
- A shock win for liberal candidate and current VP, Leni Robredo, would likely see a notable shift in government policy, with criticism of Beijing ratcheted up and closer links with the US and ASEAN neighbours sought.
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