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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary
- By-elections in two ‘safe’ Conservative seats on 2 and 16 December are likely to prove crucial in UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson avoiding a potential leadership contest.
- A long run of poor headlines for the government combined with uncertainty over the government’s COVID-19 policy and slumping opinion polling scores for his Conservative Party has seen Johnson’s popularity with his own MPs and party grassroots come under strain.
- On balance Johnson’s ouster in the short term looks an unlikely prospect, but it is a tail-risk that should not be ignored by markets given the UK Conservative Party’s established history of removing leaders its MPs view as an electoral liability.
Full article PDF attached below:
MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-By-Election Sets Up Crucial Two Weeks For PM Johnson.pdf
Chart 1. Old Bexley & Sidcup, North Shropshire 2019 Election Results, %
Source: BBC, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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