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MNI SNB Preview - September 2021: FX Policy Makes Up For Dormant Rates

Executive Summary:

  • SNB wholly expected to keep rates policy unchanged, with FX approach still pursuing an easing bias
  • Near-term inflation forecast expected to tick higher
  • Counter-cyclical buffer could come back into play to stem mortgage risks
Full piece here:

MNISNBPrevSep21.pdf

Rates expected unchanged for the foreseeable, to stress FX intervention as primary policy tool

While there's relatively little doubt that the SNB board will keep headline policy rates unchanged this quarter, the past three months have seen the bank re-assert itself in currency markets, with renewed evidence of FX intervention in EUR/CHF. Week-on-week upticks in total sight deposits coincide with periods of protracted strength in CHF, and serve as a reminder that while the SNB's rate policy appears dormant, the Bank continue to aggressively pursue an easing bias.

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