MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI US Morning FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/jz5y37x

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Fallout After Unable To Break Above The 1% Volatility

band

*RES 4: $1.2470/77 1% volatility band, Mar 27 high

*RES 3: $1.2442/43 Hourly lows Mar 26-27, now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2422 Intraday high

*RES 1: $1.2385/95 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.2349 @1342GMT 

*SUP 1: $1.2331/41 76.4% Fibo, 1.618 swing $1./2372-$1.2422

*SUP 2: $1.2317 Equality fall from $1.2422, Mar 23 low

*SUP 3: $1.2286 Mar 22 low

*SUP 4: $1.2240 Mar 20 low

*COMMENTARY* Having made it's way through $1.2397-$1.2446 resistance, needed to

clear the upper 1% volatility band, at $1.2475 yesterday, to make a move on next

resistance from the swing target at $1.2520. This the remaining barrier to the

year's previous $1.2556 high. Failure opens the door to some correction and with

the loss of $1.2389, the $1.2341-$1.2317 region becomes favoured. In the

interim, resistance from  $1.2385-$1.2395 and then the day's $1.2422 high.

CABLE TECHS: Further Correction Risk While $1.4201 Continues To Cap

*RES 4: $1.4279 Feb 1, Feb 2 highs

*RES 3: $1.4245 Mar 26, Mar 27 highs

*RES 2: $1.4201 Intraday high

*RES 1: $1.4185 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.4103 @1344GMT

*SUP 1: $1.4095 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1.4066 Mar 27 low

*SUP 3: $1.4022 Equality fall from $1.4201 to $1.4245-$1.4066

*SUP 4: $1.3979/83 50% Fibo of $1.3712-$1.4245, Mar 20 low

*COMMENTARY* Had faltered at the $1.4245 level over the last couple of days,

while endeavouring to make headway into the early Feb highs at $1.4279. This

ahead of the year's previous $1.4346 peak. The subsequent break below

$1.4170-$1.4120 support saw a loss of recent upside momentum, a low of $1.4066

so far, before some near term oversold conditions allowed a return to $1.4201.

While capped here, the risk is for a fresh fall, $1.4022-$1.3983 below $1.4066.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS:  Rally Continues, Heading Toward Y106.65-Y106.82 Resistance

*RES 4: Y107.30 Mar 13 high

*RES 3: Y106.78/82 23.6% Fibo of Y113.75-Y104.63, 1% vol band

*RES 2: Y106.65 Mar 21 high

*RES 1: Y106.35 Intraday high

*PRICE: Y106.18 @1355GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.65/70 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y105.29/32 Mar 23 high, Mar 27 low

*SUP 3: Y105.06 Initial recovery high Mar 26, now support

*SUP 4: Y104.63 Mar 23 low

*COMMENTARY* Has shrugged off near term overbought conditions with a dip to

Y105.29, before regrouping for another assault higher. This has broken above

Tuesday's Y105.90 high and also the Y106.15-Y106.20 resistance area. A high of

Y106.35 so far as we head towards the Mar 21 high at Y106.65 and then the

slightly tougher Y106.78-Y106.82 area. As a consequence, the nearest support

climbs to Y105.70-Y105.65, loss would concern and spoil recent upside momentum.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Overbought After Approach To Upper 1% Volatility Band

*RES 4: Y132.59 1.618 swing of Y131.82-Y130.58

*RES 3: Y132.44 Mar 13 high

*RES 2: Y132.22 38.2% Fibo of Y137.51-Y128.95

*RES 1: Y131.79/82 1% volatility band, Mar 27 high

*PRICE: Y131.13 @1405GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.75/85 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Y130.54/58 Hourly base Mar 26, Mar 27 low

*SUP 3: Y129.88/98 1.618 swing Y130.58-Y131.71, Mar 23 high

*SUP 4: Y129.60/65 Hourly congestion area Mar 23-26

*COMMENTARY* Continued it's recovery following last Thursday's fall to Y128.95,

just above the key Y128.90-Y128.85 support area. A high of Y131.82 on Tuesday,

basically equating to a test of the upper 1% volatility band, at the time.

Became overbought in the near term, so a pullback was anticipated. A low of

Y130.58 seen so far but while unable to reclaim levels above Y131.79-Y131.82,

the risk is for a deeper Y129.98-Y129.88 fall. Main support Y129.60-Y129.65.

EURO-STERLING TECHS: 'Shooting Star' Candle Close Is A Near Term Concern

*RES 4: Stg0.8897 Mar 12 high, 76.4% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8668

*RES 3: Stg0.8850/53 Mar 12 low, 61.8% of Stg0.8968-Stg0.8668

*RES 2: Stg0.8817 Mar 19 high

*RES 1: Stg0.8798/00 Mar 27 high, hourly resistance

*PRICE: Stg0.8751 @1407GMT

*SUP 1: Stg0.8735 Hourly support

*SUP 2: Stg0.8708/10 Mar 21, Mar 23 lows

*SUP 3: Stg0.8668 Mar 22 low

*SUP 4: Stg0.8642 Jun 8 low

*COMMENTARY* The fallout from the failure to deal with the top of the congested

6 month trading area early in the month, continued apace last week. Thursday's

sharp dip to Stg0.8668 briefly breaking the base of the range at Stg0.8687,

before finding some respite. In this respect, next resistance comes from

Stg0.8800-Stg0.8817 but Tuesday's 'Shooting Star' candle close is however a near

term concern. Support now ranged between Stg0.8735-Stg0.8708.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Triangular Consolidation Breaks To The Downside

*RES 4: $0.7796 1% volatility band

*RES 3: $0.7758 Mar 26 high

*RES 2: $0.7735 Congestion area Mar 23-27

*RES 1: $0.7703 Hourly low Mar 27, intraday high

*PRICE: $0.7672 @1410GMT 

*SUP 1: $0.7652 76.4% Fibo of $0.7502-$0.8136 

*SUP 2: $0.7642 1% volatility band

*SUP 3: $0.7627/28 7 week bear channel base, Dec 14 low 

*SUP 4: $0.7602 1.618 swing of $0.76720-$0.7786

*COMMENTARY* The triangular consolidation has broken to the downside, also

losing support from the month's previous $0.7672 low in the process. This sees

risk revert immediately to the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $0.7652 and the 1%

volatility band, at the slightly lower $0.7642 level. In the meantime,

resistance comes from the day's $0.7703 high, needing back through here for any

respite. Below $0.7642 and scope to see $0.7627-$0.7602.

     DOLLAR-CANADA TECHS: Oversold Near Term, $1.2933-$1.2936 Resistance

*RES 4: $1.3052/53 76.4% $1.3125-$1.2815, Mar 20 low

*RES 3: $1.3007/10 61.8% $1.3125-$1.2815, hourly low Mar 21 

*RES 2: $1.2970/76 50% Fibo, Hourly recovery high Mar 21

*RES 1: $1.2933/36 38.2% Fibo of $1.3125-$1.2815, Mar 22 high

*PRICE: $1.2909 @1417GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2835/63 1% volatility band,intraday low

*SUP 2: $1.2803/15 Mar 12, Mar 27 lows

*SUP 3: $1.2790 38.2% Fibo of $1.2249-$1.3125

*SUP 4: $1.2756/58 1.618 swing $1.2830-$1.2949, Feb 22 high

*COMMENTARY* Trying to decouple from support from the lower 1% volatility band,

at $1.2835 by time today. A low of $1.2815 so far, just ahead of decent support

from between $1.2803-$1.2790. Has become oversold in the near term, so with the

move above $1.2903 now looking to the more important $1.2933-$1.2936 region, as

will need back above here to reduce near term bear bias and produce a better

correction of losses from the month's $1.3125 high.

GOLD TECHS: Recovery Challenges Channel Top, $1330.1 Becomes Support

*RES 4: $1366.2 Jan 25 high

*RES 3: $1361.8 Feb 16 high

*RES 2: $1356.9 Intraday high

*RES 1: $1347.1 Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1331.9 @1422GMT

*SUP 1: $1330.1 Mar 14 high, now support

*SUP 2: $1324.8 Mar 22 low

*SUP 3: $1315.3 Mar 2 low

*SUP 4: $1307.3 Mar 20 low

*COMMENTARY* Made it's way slightly back above $1354.1, the current level of the

2 month bear channel top but as yet unable to sustain it and the chance for a

further $1361.8-$1366.2 rise, as we continue to erase losses since the year's

$1366.2 high. As a consequence, support also rises, the Mar 14 high at $1330.1

now providing the initial protection against any deeper setbacks within this

years range above $1302.8.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]