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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Bloomberg consensus sees nonfarm payrolls growth of 180k in October after almost doubling estimates with 336k in September along with strong two-month revisions.
- This slowing includes a well-known hit from strikes, with most of the extra 30k striking workers this month linked to the UAW, but there is still uncertainty over spillover from temporary layoffs in affected industries.
- Strike impact shouldn’t affect the unemployment rate, seen unchanged at 3.8% for what would be the third month at a rate the FOMC forecasts for 4Q23.
- AHE are to be watched, with an analyst skew towards a dovish surprise vs consensus of 0.3% M/M.
- A dovish leaning Powell has further reduced additional hike pricing whilst 2024 cuts have built to 90bps. Payrolls and ISM services released 90 minutes later are likely to set the macro tone until CPI on Nov 14.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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