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NAHB Survey Adds To Housing Bottom Case

US DATA
  • The NAHB survey increased by more than expected in February, up from 35 to 42 (cons 37) and its highest since Sep’22.
  • Increases were led by the northeast but seen across all major regions, whilst present sales and prospective buyer traffic increased for the second month running with future sales rising for the third month.
  • Combined with a small net move higher in mortgage applications (helped by a 100bp decline in mortgage rates since late last year before last week’s 20bp increase), it adds to signs that we could have seen the bottom of the housing downturn following an already solid recovery for the S&P 500 homebuilders – see chart.

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