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November NBP Projections remains Key for Policy Outlook

POLAND
  • This morning, NBP member Jerzy Kropiwnicki mentioned in a interview that a rate hike in coming months 'cannot be ruled out' and that the central bank decision will depend on the November projection. The first hike is likely to be 'small' and the NBP would not have to stop QE first to embark in a tightening cycle.
  • Core inflation is coming out today (1pm London time) and is expected to accelerate to 3.9% in August, up from 3.7% the previous month.
  • At this stage, three policymakers (Hardt, Gatnar and Zubelewicz) have been voting for a rate hike as they mentioned several times that inflation is now demand-driven in Poland and a gradual tightening could ease the inflationary pressures.
  • The other major risks for the PLN in the short to medium term are the legal conflicts with EU, which could delay the EU aid plans (Poland is expecting 23.9bn EUR in grants and 12.1bn EUR in loans) and the FX loans settlements.
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