Free Trial

October Inflation Data Expected to Show Another Above-60% Print

TURKEY
Inflation data is on the docket tomorrow morning (0700GMT/1000 local time). As per the median estimate of the Bloomberg survey of analysts, CPI will likely rise from +61.53% y/y in September to +62.50% in October. The monthly figure is seen moderating slightly to +4.13% from +4.75%, while core inflation will likely accelerate to +70.90% y/y from +68.93%.
  • Goldman Sachs expect headline inflation to rise to +62.3% y/y, driven both by the fading of favourable base effects and sequential price pressures. They forecast core inflation to increase to +70.8% y/y.
  • Their forecasts imply a decline in sequential core inflation from +8.7% m/m (3mma) to +3.9% m/m in October as the pass-through from upward tax adjustments, wage hikes and FX weakness has now completed. Thus, they see sequential price pressures on track to fall sharply, driven also by their expectation of a somewhat weaker domestic demand in Q4 and no sizeable FX weakness.
  • Given their terminal rate forecast of 40% for 2023, Goldman Sachs think real rates are likely to turn positive versus both sequential inflation and 12M inflation expectations by December. Nevertheless, they expect the disinflation to become visible in annual inflation only in H2 next year when base effects turn more favourable.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.