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PC Defeat Of Liberals In Nova Scotia Will Raise Concerns For PM Trudeau

CANADA

In regional elections to the Nova Scotia House of Assembly, the opposition centre-right Progressive Conservatives (PC) secured a shock win over the incumbent Liberals in the 17 August provincial election. Coming just over a month before the snap federal election taking place on 20 September, the result may cause some concern in the governing Liberal Party of Canada of PM Justin Trudeau.

  • While a provincial vote is very different to a federal one, the Liberals had retained a sizeable (if narrowing) lead in opinion polls in the maritime province ahead of the election, only to see its position as the largest party wiped out by a PC surge not picked up upon by polling.

Chart 1. Nova Scotia Election Results, Seats


Source: NovaScotiaElections, MNI

  • Liberal premiers are now only in charge of two provincial houses, those of the Yukon and Newfoundland and Labrador, with Progressive Conservatives (UCP in Alberta) now in control in six provinces, the NDP in control in British Columbia, while Saskatchewan and Quebec under control of regional parties.
  • Federal election poll: LPC: 33% (-4), CPC: 28%, NDP: 22% (+2), BQ: 7% (+2), GPC: 5%. Abacus Data, 16/08/21. Chgs w/11 Aug

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