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Post-CPI Drop Wipes Out July's Rise In BoE Peak Hike Pricing

STIR

BoE terminal rate pricing continues to fall following the softer-than-expected US inflation report, with OIS implying Mar 2024 Bank Rate at 6.26% (126bp of further hikes left in the cycle, -22.6bp on the day).

  • If this holds, all of July's rise will have been wiped out - nearly one 25bp hike has been removed from the cycle today alone, and 40bp from the July peak. August MPC pricing is down to 42bp (from 46bp coming into the week).
  • ECB pricing has been less impacted, off 3.2bp on the day but still holding on to the 4% level (at 4.01%, 51bp of further hikes are priced to Dec 2023).

Source: MNI, BBG

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