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Pre-FOMC Roundup

US TSY FUTURES
  • Tsy futures trading near midmorning highs ahead the next FOMC announcement at the top of the hour, a second consecutive steady annc widely expected. Fed Chairman Powell press conf at 1430ET, LINK.
  • Projected rate hikes into early 2024 have moderated from this morning's highs: December cumulative of 6.3bp at 5.393%, January 2024 cumulative 9.3bp at 5.393%, March 2024 at 4.3bp at 5.373%. Fed terminal at 5.420% in Feb'24.
  • Busy first half saw Treasury futures turn higher after lower than expected ADP private jobs data (113k vs. 150k est, 89k prior). Futures bounced again after nominal Tsy refunding hikes ($112B vs. $114B estimate).
  • Tsy futures surge higher yet again (TYZ3 hit 106-27.5 high, through initial 20D EMA resistance) after weaker than expected ISM data: Mfg (46.7 vs. 49.0 est), Employ (46.8 vs. 50.6 est), New Orders (45.5 vs. 49.8 est) and Prices Paid (45.1 vs 45.0 est).
  • Meanwhile, Construction Spending MoM (0.4% vs. 0.4% est, prior up-revised to 1.0 from 0.5%) while JOLTS Job Openings firmed (9.553M vs. 9.400M est, prior down-revised to 9.497M from 9.610M).
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