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USDMXN Extending Week’s Rally

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MAY TRADE BALANCE 28.3B RAND (FCST 26.3B)

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USDZAR TECHS: Clears Key Resistance

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Price Signal Summary - USD Path Of Least Resistance Remains Up

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain vulnerable following last week’s sharp reversal from 4303.00, the May 4 high. Today’s move lower has resulted in a probe of support at 4056.00, the May 2 low. A clear breach of this support would confirm a resumption of the underlying downtrend and open 4029.25, the May 13 2021 high. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 4303.50, the Apr 26/28 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in a bear mode. The contract has traded lower today, extending last week's sell-off. This has resulted in a breach support at 3608.00, Apr 27 low and of 3551.60, 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally. The move lower has exposed 3523.00 next, the Mar 11 low.
  • In FX, EURUSD remains in a downtrend. Recent price action highlights a bear flag and a resumption of the downtrend would open 1.0454, the Jan 1 2017 low. Resistance is at 1.0681, the 20-day EMA. GBPUSD remains vulnerable following last Thursday’s sharp sell-off that confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend. The focus is on 1.2252 next, the Jun 29 2020 low. The USDJPY primary uptrend remains intact and resistance at 131.25, the Apr 28 high, has been probed. Attention is on 131.96, the 1.00 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing. The USD has strengthened today against the AUD and CAD. Key support in AUDUSD is at 0.6968, the Jan 28 low and a bear trigger. Key resistance in USDCAD is at 1.2964, the Dec 20 2021 high and a key medium-term bull trigger.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains vulnerable. Attention is on $1848.8, 76.4% of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally. On the upside, $1909.8, the May 5 high is first resistance. In the Oil space, WTI futures breached its triangle resistance last week. This strengthens the short-term condition for bulls and attention is on resistance at $113.51, the Apr 18 high, that has been probed. The 20-day EMA at $104.05, is the first support to watch.
  • The trend direction in the FI space remains down. Bund futures continue to deliver fresh cycle lows, as the downtrend extends. This signals scope for weakness towards 150.15 next, the 0.764 projection of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing. The broader trend condition in Gilts remains bearish and price continues to trade below resistance at 119.79, the Apr 26 high. Attention is on the bear trigger at 117.22, Apr 22 low. This level has been probed. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 116.35, Dec 30 2015 low (cont).
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  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain vulnerable following last week’s sharp reversal from 4303.00, the May 4 high. Today’s move lower has resulted in a probe of support at 4056.00, the May 2 low. A clear breach of this support would confirm a resumption of the underlying downtrend and open 4029.25, the May 13 2021 high. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 4303.50, the Apr 26/28 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in a bear mode. The contract has traded lower today, extending last week's sell-off. This has resulted in a breach support at 3608.00, Apr 27 low and of 3551.60, 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally. The move lower has exposed 3523.00 next, the Mar 11 low.
  • In FX, EURUSD remains in a downtrend. Recent price action highlights a bear flag and a resumption of the downtrend would open 1.0454, the Jan 1 2017 low. Resistance is at 1.0681, the 20-day EMA. GBPUSD remains vulnerable following last Thursday’s sharp sell-off that confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend. The focus is on 1.2252 next, the Jun 29 2020 low. The USDJPY primary uptrend remains intact and resistance at 131.25, the Apr 28 high, has been probed. Attention is on 131.96, the 1.00 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing. The USD has strengthened today against the AUD and CAD. Key support in AUDUSD is at 0.6968, the Jan 28 low and a bear trigger. Key resistance in USDCAD is at 1.2964, the Dec 20 2021 high and a key medium-term bull trigger.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains vulnerable. Attention is on $1848.8, 76.4% of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally. On the upside, $1909.8, the May 5 high is first resistance. In the Oil space, WTI futures breached its triangle resistance last week. This strengthens the short-term condition for bulls and attention is on resistance at $113.51, the Apr 18 high, that has been probed. The 20-day EMA at $104.05, is the first support to watch.
  • The trend direction in the FI space remains down. Bund futures continue to deliver fresh cycle lows, as the downtrend extends. This signals scope for weakness towards 150.15 next, the 0.764 projection of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing. The broader trend condition in Gilts remains bearish and price continues to trade below resistance at 119.79, the Apr 26 high. Attention is on the bear trigger at 117.22, Apr 22 low. This level has been probed. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 116.35, Dec 30 2015 low (cont).