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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUSTRALIA
CoreLogic’s home value index rose 0.9% m/m in October to be 7.1% higher than a year ago. This was the ninth consecutive monthly increase. The national index is 7.6% higher than the January trough and the capital cities +9.2%. Prices have rebounded on the back of working-age population growing at its fastest pace since the series began in 1979 at a time of low housing stock. September building approvals fell but there is some positive momentum for private houses.
Australia CoreLogic house prices
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
- Sydney home prices rose 0.8% m/m in October to be up 9% y/y but Melbourne is lagging up 0.5% m/m and only 2.4% y/y. There were +1% monthly increases in Adelaide, Perth and Brisbane.
- Higher home prices and mortgage rates have meant that housing affordability has deteriorated considerably over the last 18 months. Our housing affordability index is set to deteriorate relative to trend in Q3 by an increased 43% up from 40% in Q2, assuming that disposable income rises at the average quarterly pace of the last four quarters.
- The house price to disposable income ratio looks set to rise in annual terms in Q3 for the first time in over a year and stand further above trend.
- Rents have been a particular focus given strong demand, lack of properties and subsequent rental growth. They rose 7.6% y/y in Q3 up from 6.7% and the highest since Q1 2009. But despite this housing is becoming more overvalued, as measured by house prices to rents relative to trend. It rose to 10.4% overvalued from 9.8% in Q2.
Australia housing affordability/valuation deviation from trend %
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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