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Removal of Ukrainian Gas Transit and Storage Manageable: ICIS

NATGAS

The removal of Ukrainian natural gas transit and storage volumes would drive a manageable 13bcm EU gas balance deficit, comfortably above the 2017-21 average, according to ICIS.

  • Ongoing uncertainty surrounds deliveries of Russian gas to Europe with the current Russia-Ukraine transit agreement due to expire at the end of the year.
  • Russia attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure may dissuade traders from injecting gas into Ukrainian storage facilities this summer.
  • Stable near term supplies and ongoing winter supply risks are maintaining strength in the prices for the upcoming winter relative to the front of the curve.
  • The TTF Jun 24 – Q3 24 spread is today trading at the widest this year at -0.77/MWh while the Q3 24 – Q1 25 spread is out to -€6.25/MWh.
    • TTF JUN 24 up 1.6% at 30.2€/MWh
    • TTF Q3 24 up 1.7% at 30.99€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 1.3% at 36.16€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 1.5% at 34.8€/MWh


Source: ICIS

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