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Retail Sales Surprisingly Resilient Overall, Less So In Details

CANADA DATA
  • Overall retail sales were stronger than expected, dipping -0.1% M/M in Nov contrary to the -0.5% both expected and from the initial advance release, whilst the December advance increased 0.5% vs CIBC expectations at least of another decline.
  • However, some of the strength was down to autos, with sales ex-autos falling -0.6% M/M as expected in Nov, whilst core sales (ex-gasoline stations, motor vehicles & parts) saw the largest decline in 11 months with -1.1% M/M.
  • Further, total retail volumes fell -0.4% M/M, continuing a weak run to levels last seen in July and before that Dec’21.
  • The combination of the 3m/3m run rate of -2% annualized in Nov for real retail sales but the nominal run rate bouncing from -1.3% to +4.3% in Dec appears consistent with the BoC’s forecast that the economy stalled in late 2022 with further weakness due for 1H23.

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