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Scotia Sees A Solid Case For 75-100bp Hike In June

CANADA
  • Earlier, CIBC joined the chorus for a 50bp hike in June having been one of the few analysts only looking for a 25bp hike prior to March CPI.
  • At the other end of the spectrum, Scotia see a solid case for the BoC to hike by 75-100bps in one go, having previously seen three further 50bp hikes in June, July and Sep.
  • Of particular note, 65% of the CPI basket is now up by 3% or more and a whopping 59% of the basket is up by 4% or more -- the breadth of the price increases are the “wow factor” of this report.
  • Scotia note that headline inflation will likely exceed 8% Y/Y in April from the 6.7% Y/Y in March when StatCan finally adds used vehicle prices.
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