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SocGen Maintain 2024 Year-End Forecast Of 8.75%

BRAZIL
  • Given the risks associated with inflation forecasts, the central bank doesn’t want to accelerate the pace of easing even though real interest rates remain significantly high and into restrictive territory. The key question is what the monetary policy response will be if inflation stays at around or slightly above 3.5% over the medium term (as we and the consensus expect it to).
  • SocGen maintain their end-2023 and end-2024 Selic rate forecasts of 11.75% and 8.75% vs consensus forecasts of 11.75% and 9.25% respectively.
  • The COPOM decision should continue to support the BRL. The recent increase in fiscal risk might only be transitory, given the administration’s commitment to a balanced budget (or at least close to one) and ongoing discussions in congress about initiatives to increase revenues. So, the recent spike in the front end should be seen as an opportunity to add risk.
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