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Some decent forecast changes for the BOE

BOE

Probably the biggest change for the BOE here is the new inflation forecasts.

  • At 2-years the modal forecast on market rates is now 1.95%Y/Y (it was 1.65%Y/Y in May) and the mean is 2.25% (up from 1.95%). Under constant rates the forecsats are actually maringally higher too - but not enough to really have any impact.
  • More surprising is at the 3-year area where under unchanged policy the modal forecast is now 1.17%Y/Y (down from 1.40%Y/Y) and the mean forecast is 1.57%Y/Y (down from 1.80%Y/Y).
  • But the growth forecasts with unchanged rates are a lot weaker through Q2-24 to Q2-25 - all now negative.
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