SOUTH AFRICA: MNI Publishes Election Preview

South Africa holds its general election on 29 May, with the contest potentially set to result in a sea-change in the country’s political environment. For the first time since the end of Apartheid and the enactment of universal adult suffrage in 1994, the governing African National Congress (ANC) of President Cyril Ramaphosa could lose its majority in the National Assembly. This would require the ANC to garner support from other parties to elect a president and could bring about the first non-transitional coalition government in South Africa’s history.

The stark contrasts on offer in terms of possible coalition partners means markets will be particularly wary of the exact election outcome and its impact on what governing partnerships could be possible. These range from a market-friendly ANC coalition with minor parties, to an historic agreement with the liberal Democratic Alliance, through to a deal with the far left Economic Freedom Fighters or uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) that would rattle investors with the prospect of tax hikes, land expropriation, and the government taking control of the SARB.

In this preview we include our own analysis of potential election scenarios with assigned probabilities, a financial markets briefing, an explainer on the format of the election and the main parties involved, and a number of analyst views. 

Full article PDF attached below:

MNIPOLITICALRISK-SouthAfricaElectionPreview.pdf