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Summary of Analyst Views

  • Of the 22 analyst analyst previews that we have read, 19 look for a 25bp hike this week (the exception being Berenberg who expect the next hike in May).
  • Out of those 19 remaining analysts, 18 specify that they expect a further hike in May (Lloyds have not explicitly laid out their view after this meeting).
  • Views on the vote breakdown are more nuanced. More seem to expect either a unanimous 9-0 vote or 1-3 members still voting for a 50bp hike. However, Tenreyro voting for an on hold decision is the base case of JP Morgan and discussed by others as a risk.
  • There are split views on whether the forward guidance will be tweaked: language on “modest tightening” is expected to remain but whether this will be time contingent on “coming months” has split analysts.
  • As we noted earlier, there is a dislocation between economists views and market pricing. For more see here.

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