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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
- Recent months have seen large idiosyncratic distortions from the shutdown of Yellow Corp trucking and the still ongoing SAG-AFTRA strike.
- This month’s report for October sees larger still strike disruption from the UAW, having began on Sep 15 which meant minimal impact on September’s report as it came right at the end of the reference week.
- The UAW represents 145k automobile workers employed at Ford, GM and Stellantis, although the BLS’s CES Strike Report indicates UAW strikes amounted to just over 30k workers in the CES reference pay period.
- The bulk of that (25k) is accounted for by Ford, GM and Stellantis in the motor vehicle manufacturing industry with the remaining ~5k split across a variety of industries including power transmission equipment manufacturing and less so health insurance.
- The total 30.4k of new strikers is on top of the 17.7k continued strikes, the bulk of which comes from the longstanding SAG-AFTRA strikes (16k) which have recently breached their 100th day having begun in mid-July.
- The combined total 48k workers on strike is the highest for a single month since 2004.
- It's worth noting though that this additional 30.4k from UAW is likely the minimum estimate for payrolls disruption in this month's data, with spillover onto other firms seeing temporary layoffs in both upstream and downstream industries.
- However, differences in methodology should be very little impact on the unemployment rate from the separate household survey.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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