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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GLOBAL
CPB data for June showed global trade deteriorated in the middle of the year. It fell 0.8% m/m to be down 2.5% y/y after -2.1% y/y. Growth had improved from the -2.9% y/y trough in December 2022 but is now deteriorating again. The trough in the Baltic Freight Index though is some sign that global trade growth may stabilise in the coming months.
- The Baltic Freight index fell sharply in June but has risen 10.1% m/m in August to date. While it is still 18.1% lower than a year ago, that has improved from -55.1% y/y in June. The index appears to have troughed earlier this year.
Global Trade vs Baltic freight index
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
- Export volumes fell 0.3% m/m to be down 1.3% y/y after -1.2% in May and Q2 saw a 0.6% q/q drop. They were weak from both developed and emerging nations with negative 3-month momentum.
Global export growth %
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
- Import volumes fell 1.1% m/m in June and -3.7% y/y after -2.9%, the weakest since August 2020.
- Trade prices remain soft falling 1.7% m/m again in June to be down 8.1% y/y with export prices down 8.9% y/y. Energy prices were weak falling 48.3% y/y, but oil prices didn’t rally until July, and raw material prices were down 18.2% y/y, off the trough of -25.6% in March.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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