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Treasuries Bull Steepen With Risk On

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have largely moved lower since the late open with a Japanese holiday as part of risk on moves with S&P e-minis continuing Friday’s move higher although with another wave of earnings reports potential triggers ahead.
  • Relatively more restrained commentary from Fed officials leaning towards 75bps rather than 100bps next week has seen a modest bear steepening, doing little to change the recent inversion with 2s10s hovering only just above -20bps.
  • 2YY +2.7bps at 3.147%, 5YY +3.6bps at 2.0732%, 10YY +3.9bps at 2.954% and 30YY +3.5bps at 3.110%.
  • TYU2 trades 5+ ticks lower at 118-15 at the low end of Friday’s range on volumes still lagging after the Japanese holiday. There is a bullish focus, with resistance eyed at 119-06 (Jul 13 high) after which sits the bull trigger at 120-16+ (Jul 6 high).
  • Data: Limited to NAHB housing market with a modest cooling expected before TIC flows late on.
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $54B 13W, $42B 26W bill auctions – 1130ET
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