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Trump Receives Bump After "America First" Announcement

US

Former President Donald Trump has seen his chances of winning the Republican Party presidential primary increasing following the announcement of "America First," his first significant policy announcement yesterday.

  • According to bettor Smarkets, Trump received an 8% boost in implied probability of winning the primary following the announcement of his trade agenda.
  • Trump’s proposed "America First" trade policy takes an ultra-hawkish line on China with new baseline tariffs, revoking China’s most favoured trading partner status, and additional measures on China’s industrial base designed to make the US, “a manufacturing powerhouse like the world has never seen before."
  • Trump said: "Joe Biden claims to support American manufacturing, but in reality, he is pushing the same pro-China globalist agenda that ripped the industrial heart out of our country.”
  • Trump: "Very simply, the Biden agenda taxes America to build up China. My agenda will tax China to build up America."

Figure 1: Republican Primary Election Winner (Smarkets)

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