TTF Eases Back from High of Nearly €35/MWh Yesterday

TTF front month has eased back slightly after reaching the highest since mid-April at €34.87/MWh yesterday. Warm weather across Europe and LNG supply risks as Asia competes for cargoes are providing upside pressures.

• Temperatures across Europe are expected to hold above normal throughout the two week forecast period while wind generation in NW Europe remains low.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are higher again today to 279.9mcm/d as facilities return capacity following outages. Gassco shows outages will reduce further to around 55mcm/d tomorrow and then remain largely unchanged until the end the maintenance season around June 5.
• European LNG sendout has recovered up to 293cm/d on May 21 after the dip to the lowest since late September around 250mcm/d in the previous few days.
• Total European gas storage is slowly building but with injection rates well below normal. Stores were up to 67.53% full on May 21 according to GIE compared to the five year seasonal average of 53.8%.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 63.55mcm/d.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was up to 447k on May 22.
  • TTF JUN 24 down 0.4% at 34.24€/MWh
    
  • TTF Q3 24 down 0.3% at 35.1€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 24 down 0.7% at 39.65€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 25 down 1.5% at 37.05€/MWh