NATGAS
TTF extends gains amid European import supply risks after OMV warned that it may have to stop gas payments to Russia’s Gazprom Export due to legal issues risking Russian gas supplies to Austria.
- Former regulator head Walter Boltz said the Russian gas deliveries to Austria “will stop at some point this summer, maybe in two or three months,” according to Montel. The halt could impact supplies up to 6bcm/year, Montel added.
- TTF prices have been boosted since May 15 by an increase in European cooling demand and low wind generation as well as LNG supply risks from increased competition for cargoes from Asia.
- TTF second month implied volatility has risen up to 66% this week from a low of 58.7% in mid May.
- The near term TTF rally has driven the Jun 24 – Q3 24 spread back up to -€0.73/MWh today from a low of -€0.81/MWh yesterday. The Q3 24 – Q1 25 spread has also narrowed from -€6.34/MWh on May 15 to nearly -€5/MWh today.
- TTF JUN 24 up 3.9% at 35.74€/MWh
- TTF Q3 24 up 3.6% at 36.48€/MWh
- TTF WIN 24 up 2.2% at 40.82€/MWh
- TTF SUM 25 up 2% at 38.38€/MWh
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