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Under Pressure As Oil Ticks Higher & Peers Soften

GILTS

Gilts weaken as an uptick in crude oil futures adds to pressure from modest upward revisions to final French & Spanish CPI data and yesterday’s soft 30-Year U.S. Tsy auction. Local headline flow has been light.

  • That leaves futures -66 at 97.85. Initial support at yesterday’s low (97.63).
  • Cash gilt yields are 5-7bp higher across the curve, 10s under the most pressure.
  • GBP STIRs see some hawkish adjustments, with SONIA futures flat to -7.0, while BoE-dated OIS shows 12.5bp (50/50 odds) of an Aug cut and ~47.5bp of easing through Dec.
  • U.S. inflation data will likely dominate into the weekend, with PPI and UoM readings due. The former will allow analysts to fine tune their PCE projections following yesterday’s soft CPI.
  • Further out, Wednesday’s UK CPI release provides the next point of note on the domestic data calendar.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Aug-245.073-12.7
Sep-244.989-21.1
Nov-244.825-37.5
Dec-244.723-47.7
Feb-254.574-62.6
Mar-254.472-72.8
May-254.344-85.6
Jun-254.248-95.2

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg. 2025 meeting dates are estimated.

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Bank Of England (BOE) Market NewsHomepageBond Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Bank Of England (BOE) Market NewsHomepageBond Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

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