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Under Pressure As Oil Ticks Higher & Peers Soften

GILTS
Bank Of England (BOE) Market NewsHomepageBond Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

Gilts weaken as an uptick in crude oil futures adds to pressure from modest upward revisions to final French & Spanish CPI data and yesterday’s soft 30-Year U.S. Tsy auction. Local headline flow has been light.

  • That leaves futures -66 at 97.85. Initial support at yesterday’s low (97.63).
  • Cash gilt yields are 5-7bp higher across the curve, 10s under the most pressure.
  • GBP STIRs see some hawkish adjustments, with SONIA futures flat to -7.0, while BoE-dated OIS shows 12.5bp (50/50 odds) of an Aug cut and ~47.5bp of easing through Dec.
  • U.S. inflation data will likely dominate into the weekend, with PPI and UoM readings due. The former will allow analysts to fine tune their PCE projections following yesterday’s soft CPI.
  • Further out, Wednesday’s UK CPI release provides the next point of note on the domestic data calendar.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Aug-245.073-12.7
Sep-244.989-21.1
Nov-244.825-37.5
Dec-244.723-47.7
Feb-254.574-62.6
Mar-254.472-72.8
May-254.344-85.6
Jun-254.248-95.2

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg. 2025 meeting dates are estimated.

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Gilts weaken as an uptick in crude oil futures adds to pressure from modest upward revisions to final French & Spanish CPI data and yesterday’s soft 30-Year U.S. Tsy auction. Local headline flow has been light.

  • That leaves futures -66 at 97.85. Initial support at yesterday’s low (97.63).
  • Cash gilt yields are 5-7bp higher across the curve, 10s under the most pressure.
  • GBP STIRs see some hawkish adjustments, with SONIA futures flat to -7.0, while BoE-dated OIS shows 12.5bp (50/50 odds) of an Aug cut and ~47.5bp of easing through Dec.
  • U.S. inflation data will likely dominate into the weekend, with PPI and UoM readings due. The former will allow analysts to fine tune their PCE projections following yesterday’s soft CPI.
  • Further out, Wednesday’s UK CPI release provides the next point of note on the domestic data calendar.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Aug-245.073-12.7
Sep-244.989-21.1
Nov-244.825-37.5
Dec-244.723-47.7
Feb-254.574-62.6
Mar-254.472-72.8
May-254.344-85.6
Jun-254.248-95.2

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg. 2025 meeting dates are estimated.