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US DATA: ISM Services Jumps To Early 2023 Levels But Employment Sours

US DATA
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ISM Services were clearly stronger than expected with some genuinely strong readings for both prices paid and new orders but the decline in employment back into contractionary territory takes some of the gloss off an otherwise strong report. 

  • ISM Services: 54.9 (cons 51.7) in Sep after 51.5 in Aug and 51.4 in Jul for its highest since Feb’23.
  • Prices paid: 59.4 (cons 56.0) after 57.3 – highest since Jan and back to the 59.3 averaged in 2023. It’s corroborated by PMI services input cost inflation at the joint-fastest in the past year and output price inflation at six-month highs.
  • New orders: Particularly strong at 59.4 (cons 52.5) after 53.0 for the highest since Feb’23 for an impressive turnaround from the 47.3 of June.
  • Employment: 48.1 (cons 50.0) after 50.2 for what had been two months above 50.  It returns close to the 47.7 averaged in a disappointing string of readings through 1H24.
  • Note the low Bloomberg survey responses for individual components (5 for prices paid and 3 for employment and new orders vs 59 for the headline index) so we focus on latest changes rather than surprises for those categories. 
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ISM Services were clearly stronger than expected with some genuinely strong readings for both prices paid and new orders but the decline in employment back into contractionary territory takes some of the gloss off an otherwise strong report. 

  • ISM Services: 54.9 (cons 51.7) in Sep after 51.5 in Aug and 51.4 in Jul for its highest since Feb’23.
  • Prices paid: 59.4 (cons 56.0) after 57.3 – highest since Jan and back to the 59.3 averaged in 2023. It’s corroborated by PMI services input cost inflation at the joint-fastest in the past year and output price inflation at six-month highs.
  • New orders: Particularly strong at 59.4 (cons 52.5) after 53.0 for the highest since Feb’23 for an impressive turnaround from the 47.3 of June.
  • Employment: 48.1 (cons 50.0) after 50.2 for what had been two months above 50.  It returns close to the 47.7 averaged in a disappointing string of readings through 1H24.
  • Note the low Bloomberg survey responses for individual components (5 for prices paid and 3 for employment and new orders vs 59 for the headline index) so we focus on latest changes rather than surprises for those categories.