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US Gas Storage Build Expected as Softer Demand Offsets Production Dip

NATGAS

The US gas market is approaching the withdrawal season with storage last week 5.8% above the five year average at 3,700bcf. Injections this week are expected at 79bcf according to a Bloomberg survey with softer natural gas demand offsetting slower US production.

  • The latest EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending 27 Oct will be released this afternoon at 10:30 ET (14:30 GMT due to the UK clock change last weekend).
  • Industrial demand was up 703mmcf from the previous week while feedgas for LNG exports was down by 607mmcf. Overall daily consumption fell 1.9bcf while output fell by 424mmcf with growth slowing due to persistent discipline according to Bloomberg.
  • The BNEF samples-based model predicts an injection of 77bcf, while the weather-based supply and demand model predicts an injection of 84bcf. BNEF see residential and commercial demand down 2.3bcf/d with supply down 0.3bcf/d and imports from Canada down 0.4bcf/d. US gas production could be overstated due to October intrastate pipeline maintenance.
  • The early BNEF view for the week ending Nov 3 is an injection of 6bcf.
    • US Natgas DEC 23 down -1.7% at 3.43$/mmbtu
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