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US: Presidential Election Swing States Remain Within Polling Margin Of Error

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A new Emerson College Polling survey for The Hill continues to show a tight race in all seven swing states.

  • Emerson College notes: “Since the last round of Emerson/The Hill swing state polls three weeks ago, the race has shifted slightly: Harris lost a point in Arizona and North Carolina, gained a point in Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and her support did not move in Michigan and Nevada. Trump lost a point in Georgia and Nevada, gained a point in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, and did not move in Arizona or Wisconsin.”
  • Spencer Kimball at Emerson notes: “Harris performs stronger than President Biden among Asian voters and young voters, but underperforms Biden’s 2020 support among independents and older voters.
  • “Trump has held at 49% for several months in Emerson surveys in Wisconsin, raising questions about whether he has hit a ceiling there. With just under four weeks to go, the race remains too close to call in key swing states, all within the margin of error.”

Figure 1: Swing State Polls Likely Voters, July-October

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A new Emerson College Polling survey for The Hill continues to show a tight race in all seven swing states.

  • Emerson College notes: “Since the last round of Emerson/The Hill swing state polls three weeks ago, the race has shifted slightly: Harris lost a point in Arizona and North Carolina, gained a point in Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and her support did not move in Michigan and Nevada. Trump lost a point in Georgia and Nevada, gained a point in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, and did not move in Arizona or Wisconsin.”
  • Spencer Kimball at Emerson notes: “Harris performs stronger than President Biden among Asian voters and young voters, but underperforms Biden’s 2020 support among independents and older voters.
  • “Trump has held at 49% for several months in Emerson surveys in Wisconsin, raising questions about whether he has hit a ceiling there. With just under four weeks to go, the race remains too close to call in key swing states, all within the margin of error.”

Figure 1: Swing State Polls Likely Voters, July-October

Keep reading...Show less