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USDZAR Returns to Post-MTBPS Lows

ZAR
USDZAR is back trading close to its intraday lows, having made a temporary recovery from the post-MTBPS lows in-line with the uptick in the greenback through the NY crossover. The dollar has since eased of its highs while equities have rallied ahead of the Fed, prompting the move back lower in USDZAR.
  • The rand initially rallied substantially despite the MTBPS confirming a deteriorating fiscal outlook. The local currency was potentially supported by the fiscal shortfall forecast of 4.9% of GDP, which was generally below the estimates of analyst predictions we had seen.
  • Of note from the budget statement, gross debt is seen peaking at 77.7% of GDP in 2025-26, as opposed to February’s forecast of 73.6%. In addition, the Treasury intends to raise $2.4 billion in 2023-24 from international financing institutions to meet its foreign-currency commitments.
  • Yields on SAGBs are down 10-14bps across the curve at typing, extending the pullback from the late September /early October highs. The JALSH equity index is flat, though had recorded its lowest level since Dec’22 prior to the MTBPS.
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