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VDMA Machine Orders Suggest Ongoing Caution Among Domestic Producers


VDMA Machinery Orders for December came in at -6% Y/Y (vs -13% prior) in volume terms (the improvement driven by an increase in non-euro area orders). Orders were down -9%Y/Y looking at the 3-month period between Oct-Dec compared with the same period in 2022 (vs -12% prior).

  • For 2023 in total, machine orders printed at -12% Y/Y.
  • The 3M measure was driven lower by domestic orders (-15% 3M/Y), suggesting ongoing caution among domestic producers. Foreign orders decreased less severely at -6% 3M/Y.
  • "A look at the course of the curve indicates that foreign orders are bottoming out. Domestic orders, on the other hand, are still on a downward course. It is therefore clearly too early to sound the all-clear", VDMA Chief Economist Ralph Wiechers mirrors the data.
  • December Factory Orders and Industrial Production data is due next week, with both seeing ongoing weekness in recent releases. In November, Factory Orders printed -1.4% 3M/3M and Industrial Production fell the sixth consecutive time on the yearly rate.

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