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View Change: BNP: Next hike in June (not Aug) before pause to 2023

BOE
  • “Expect the next hike to come in June, rather than August as we previously thought, but remain of the view that the MPC will pause thereafter.”
  • “May’s decisions further support our view that gilt sales are unlikely this year… It might be difficult for the MPC to justify that conditions are sufficient to warrant a pause in interest rate hikes, but at the same time warrant a more aggressive run down of the balance sheet, so we see little reason to alter our view that sales will likely commence in 2023.”
  • “Would not consider 1.25% equivalent to the terminal rate. In our view, while the MPC is right to take a pessimistic view of the near-term outlook, it is likely too gloomy on the outlook for 2023 and beyond. As a result, we maintain our view that the MPC will hike twice more in 2023, taking Bank Rate up to 1.75% by the year end.”
  • “That three of the nine MPC members voted to raise rates by 50bp at this meeting surprised us (we thought the 50bp debate had been largely put to bed), this was about the only hawkish element in the MPC’s pronouncements.”
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