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VIEW: JPM See Risk Of Holding After Mixed Business Survey Results

CANADA
  • JPMorgan believe the BoC will weigh the hard data since the December decision —primarily the labor market and inflation —and hike 25bp tomorrow before holding through 2023.
  • In terms of the risks they now believe the mixed results of the Bank’s 4Q BoS could be a factor that keeps the Bank on hold. Note that the survey interviews were conducted before the Dec 7 decision so the Bank had some insight into the conditions businesses were facing when it raised the policy rate by 50bp.
  • The business community presented a somewhat gloomier outlook in the Q4 survey. While businesses anticipate weaker sales growth and expect to raise their output prices at a slower pace, a key takeaway is that inflation expectations remain elevated.
  • Ahead, JPM look to the new meeting deliberations to be released on Feb 8.
  • A recent staff paper suggests the transparency surrounding decision-making at the central bank could increase significantly; we expect the staff recommendations will be incorporated into the summary, featuring language about the views of “some members”, ”most members,” and ”all members.”
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