Free Trial

Will Reported Kishida-Takaichi Deal Prove Decisive In Runoff?

JAPAN

It appears that the Sankei piece flagged in the previous bullet has provided a boost to market pricing of a Kishida win in today's LDP leadership election, putting him ahead of main contender Kono.

  • The Sankei report pointed to a deal struck by Kishida and Takaichi camps, which would make them join forces if any of the two candidates faces Kono in the second round of the election.
  • Kono relies on his popularity among rank-and-file LDP members, while Kishida is expected to score the most votes of LDP lawmakers.
  • The race is unlikely to be concluded in the first round, where half of the voting power lies with rank-and-file party members. The backing from party heavyweights will be critical in deciding the outcome of the second round, which is why the Kishida-Takaichi deal may tip the balance in the potential runoff.
  • Note the increase in implied odds of Kishida being the Prime Minister come the end of the year around the time the Sankei piece was released (Fig. 2). The winner of LDP leadership race is virtually certain to become the next Premier.


Fig. 1: Who Will Be The Prime Minister Of Japan On Dec 31? PredictIt "Yes" Share Price By Candidate.

Source: PredictIt



Fig. 2: Who Will Be The Prime Minister Of Japan On Dec 31? PredictIt "Yes" Share Price/Volume By Candidate In The Last 24 Hours.

Source: PredictIt

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.